I’m running slightly late with this, but these days, I’m lucky to get the time to post anything.

About a year ago, I made a bunch of predictions about where Second Life would be now, so I’ll kick off reviewing how those went:

1. SL concurrency is going to hit 150,000. Ha! I got this very very wrong. Concurrency hasn’t improved a great deal, with around 80,000 users on at peak times. FAIL.

2. Immersive Workspaces will be an epic fail. On the whole, Immersive Workspaces doesn’t really seem to have taken off in a big way. And with the appearance of SL Enterprise, I’m not quite sure what’s in its future. There are differences between the two, but essentially they both the same type of product (as far as I can tell, anyways). RiversRunRed are either being really tight lipped over who’s buying IW, or they’ve not got clients. Either way, it’s hardly set the world alight. I’m calling this a SORTA.

3. Machinima will make it to the mainstream. Congrats to Pooky Amsterdam, who’s song (with a machinima video) was nominated for a Grammy award! That said though, machinima didn’t set the world alight. What did, was Hollywood – films like Surrogates and Avatar have related to the concept of virtual realities such as Second Life. Of course, movies have done that in previous years, but the trend continues. Overall though, this one’s a FAIL.

4. Google makes a comeback. Hahaha.. umm no. FAIL.

5. Second Life will remain a leader in the metaverses market. Yeah, SL is still kicking ass, surviving the recession and kept themselves a stable share of the market. Compared to other metaverses, Second Life has come out favourably, unlike Metaplace who recently closed their virtual doors. As far as User-Generated-Content worlds go, SL has continued to keep themselves on top. CORRECT.

6. Electric Sheep Company will downscale their operation within Second Life. Well they sold XStreet, and OnRez viewer is gone. There’s still a very minimal presence of ESC in Second Life, but like RiversRunRed and MillionsOfUs, they’ve pretty much vanished from the grid. CORRECT.

7. Browser based shopping will become more popular. Well it has – since Linden Lab decided to dictate the game. The closure of OnRez and the integration of XStreet SL into the Second Life website, as well as those annoying spam emails, has pretty much made Browser based shopping in Second Life much more popular. CORRECT.

8. Linden Lab will continue to neglect Teen Second Life. And how. They’ve ended Teen SL office hours, let copybotted content run riot and made it near impossible for anyone outside of America to register onto the grid. CORRECT.

9. A major infringement of IP rights will cause many SL brands to leave. Quite a lot of sims/stores have closed down this year, although I’m not certain IP infringement was the reason behind it. However, with the likes of a lawsuit threatening the future of Second Life commerce as we know it, I don’t think we can really discount the impact that IP theft has had in 2009. This one is a SORTA.

10. Blogs will have more power on SL Marketing. M Linden liked “aspects” of this prediction. Unfortunately for SL’s blogging community, it still only reaches the same tiny proportion of the SL community as it did last year. Unless you’re a blog which names copybots all the time under the pretence that you’re championing IP rights. In which case, everyone found out the names of these copybots through you, and Google did the rest. Congratulations of spreading theft throughout Second Life. I’m calling this prediction a FAIL.

So that’s 4 predictions right, and 2 sortas. Not bad.

So what are Prad Prathivi’s predictions for 2010, I hear you cry (silently.. very silently)? Well, here’s my ten for this coming year:

1. Second Life 2.0 will be released, and initially annoy the heck out of everyone. But after a while, people will settle down and get used to it, like with everything else. It’s going to be a huge change, and a lot of people will have an adjustment curve to be able to get to grips with the new interface. It’s going to be drastically different to the current viewer’s UI, and there are going to be aspects that people want to see back from the old viewer, but after a while, it’ll be accepted and then we’ll all wait to see what third-party viewers come along.

2. Directories will be the buzzword of 2010. We’re going to see directories for everything – a directory of “approved developers” already exists, but will get promoted more prominently. Also, an official register of SL third party clients will be made public in a move to try and drown out the rogue viewers. But it won’t work, because the internet is full of pirates. Also, a directory of legitimate businesses in Second Life will be opened, with some sort of protected seal that can be verified through the SL viewer. Basically a way of telling the user that the store they’re in has been verified. A bunch of merchants who aren’t on this list will cry foul.

3. Mesh Support will change the way we see Second Life. Mesh imports are going to change SL in an even bigger way than sculpties did. You’re going to see a whole new grid emerging, and creators who don’t have the know-how to use 3D modelling software yet are likely going to lag behind.

4. Mesh imports will be a Premium Account only feature. Premium accounts are back on the agenda for Linden Lab, and I’ve a sneaky feeling they’re going to make the Mesh Importing only available to subscribing users. I reckon other features of Second Life will become Premium only too, as the Lab attempts to monetise on the hardcore users of SL.

5. Concurrency will hit 110,000 users. I can see Second Life coming out of its media blackhole this year, and starting to put itself out there more. Despite a poor story on SL by the BBC, I think Linden Lab took the approach where they lay low and let everyone forget about all the bad sex stuff, so they can come out the shell and say “Look at us now!”.

6. Linden Lab will nail down the make or break “First Hour Experience”, and it’ll work. Kinda. Ever since the catastrophe that CSI:NY presented, Second Life has struggled on how to get new users to settled into SL culture and “get it”. Too many new registered users log in once, and then never return to the grid. It’s been a big problem for the Lab for a while now, and I foresee them trialling their new “First Hour Experience” strategy in 2010 to try and get these new users to stick around. It’s going to involve a sim for whatever you’ve come to SL to do – so if you want to roleplay, create or listen to live music, there’ll be a starter sim aimed just at you. I’m not 100% sure this is going to work as well as they’re hoping it will, as much of SL is always going to be an endless, confusing mess. After 3 years on the grid, I still have no idea what’s going on!

7. Teen Grid will be closed down and TSL residents will be granted access to all PG sims in Second Life’s Main Grid. Their profiles will clearly state that they are an underaged avatar, and regular Second Life users will have the rules enforced on them strictly to behave. Any case of ‘funny business’ will be dealt with swifter than the thought police raining down on your ass. Blink the wrong way, and LL will suspend your sorry ass. Several residents of MG will scream and kick about kids being on their grid, until they realise that most of them were already here anyways, and those who weren’t are much more mature than them.

8.  Zindra will get locked down. Age Verification seems to have bellyflopped on the Lab, but I think it’s going to make a comeback in 2010 as Linden Lab are eager to have the Zindra region shut down to anyone who is underaged, or could be underaged. As Linden Lab gear the Second Life platform back into the public spotlight, they want to make it clear that you will only find sex in SL if you actively go looking for it.. which, of course, isn’t really true. But ssssh.. nobody say anything!

9. Other Virtual Worlds will finally show signs of growing. ReactionGrid and Blue Mars are slowly starting to find their feet in the virtual worlds markets, although they’re a far way away from going anywhere. At least another 2 years before I’d consider them even barely comparable to the likes of Second Life. Nevertheless, the appeal of ReactionGrid to SL’s educator community, and the appeal that Blue Mars is gaining in the commercial markets grants them niche markets that were once considered Second Life’s strongholds. No amount of hype will give Blue Mars an ounce on SL this year though – it’s simply just not ready.

10. SL will advertise in mainstream media. After the push by World of Warcraft, with their frontman Mr T, I forsee this being the year that Second Life pushes out to control their own publicity. Once they sort out the new viewer, lock down Zindra and integrate Teen Grid, as well as clock that vital First Hour Experience, I think we’ll see a media campaign to market Second Life to the masses. Whether Second Life can support that sort of growth will depend on how well prepared the Lab has been.

11. Pricing wars. Towards the end of the year, I can see other grids trying to tie Linden Lab into a pricing war over sim tiers. I think the Lab will resist any attempt of underpricing simply because of their status, but it’ll be something which comes under review this year.

12. Search will be overhauled. Traffic will finally change and become less relevant, as the Lindens start to crack down on bots which aren’t registered as bots. Instead, XStreetSL listings will become integrated into search, and with your SL and XSL balance becoming one, the ability to buy products will be done without the need to go to a store or use an out-of-world browser. Linden Lab will also monetise on the ways store merchants can purchase classifieds for particular keywords, making them more prominent in SL Search window.

13. The Browser Integrated Viewer. Work will begin this year on a new type of viewer – one which allows you to access Second Life from a standard internet browser, but still offering full graphics and functionality. Browser Integration will be restricted to single sims at a time, and will require a plugin download, but will serve as an avenue to allow new users to explore the virtual world.

I think that’s about all I’m going to predict for 2010. It’s going to be an interesting year for Second Life, where I see it coming out of its cocoon. Whether it emerges stronger than before, or if the move backfires will depend on Linden Lab’s timing and judgement.

Here’s to 2010!